We have to mark this as “developing” for now, but it looks like Cold War aviation may be brewing … Many countries are imposing sanctions on Belarus after the country essentially hijacked a Ryanair 737 that was flying between Athens and Vilnius. At that time, Belavia was banned from using European Union airspace and airlines are also being warned against using Belarusian airspace. We knew Russia was on the Belarusian side, although a big question was what that would mean in practice, especially as far as aviation is concerned. Well, we may have our answer, and it may be pretty petty – Russia may block some inbound flights avoiding Belarusian airspace. This was first noticed when Air France’s flight from Paris to Moscow was canceled yesterday. It was explained that this was “for operational reasons related to the bypassing of Belarusian airspace, which required a new permit from the Russian authorities to enter their territory”. Today’s Air France flight on the route has also been canceled, and tomorrow’s flight has already been proactively canceled. This wasn’t a one-time (or triple, I suppose) thing either. The same thing happened today with Austrian Airlines on their flight from Vienna to Moscow. When airlines change their routes they have to submit new flight schedules and Russia simply chooses not to approve them as usual. It doesn’t seem to have any other reason than being petty, for there is no other logical justification. It should now be made clear that flights to other Russian destinations are going as usual, some flights to Moscow are going normally and that we only have limited data points so far and therefore cannot say anything definitely. But if this is what it seems, it wouldn’t really surprise anyone. Things are escalating and if this continues it could potentially have a massive global impact on aviation. At the moment, Russia seems petty about flights to Moscow, but the country could eventually impose a reciprocal flight ban (which it would view as such) and block its airspace for any airline registered in a country that has its airspace to Belarus blocked? This could take the form of simply not approving flight plans, rather than a general ban. Russia is a huge country and has one of the “most important” airspaces for airlines operating in all types of long haul markets, as well as all the restrictions that come with that. I’m not saying that will happen, but neither can it be ruled out. Bottom lineRussia appears to be blocking some flights that choose to avoid Belarusian airspace by not approving modified flight schedules. Only a limited number of flights are currently affected. However, if this escalates, it could have a significant impact on global aviation. Russia is clearly on Belarus’ side, so this is one opportunity for Russia to stir the pot. While we’re not there yet, I don’t think we can rule out Russia, which is imposing widespread airspace restrictions. What do you think of Russia blocking flights that avoid Belarusian airspace? Via https://globalconnekt.com/russia-blocks-flights-avoiding-belarusian-airspace/
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